Can AMD become a trillion-dollar market capitalization company by 2030?

Recently, AMD made a big announcement at the analyst conference: the data center business is expected to grow at a 60% CAGR over the next 5 years. It sounds a bit outrageous, but looking at the data, it might actually be possible.

What is the current situation? Nvidia's data center growth rate is 66% in Q2, while AMD is only at 22%. What does this indicate? It's not that AMD's hardware is inferior, but rather that the CUDA ecosystem's moat is too deep. However, AMD's ROCm software has indeed been catching up recently, and once it is recognized by enterprises, the market potential is enormous—because the burning of cash in AI data centers shows no signs of stopping in the short term.

Digital model briefly: AMD's revenue last year was 32B, with a CAGR of 35% (calculated comprehensively), it can reach 155B by 2030, corresponding to an earnings per share of $20. Even if we only consider a PE of 30 (currently it's at 50), the stock price could reach $600. However, AMD is currently at 200, which means an increase of 140%.

But these are all AMD's own predictions. Before investing, you need to think clearly: Can they deliver? Nvidia's CUDA has relied on its past success for so many years, can AMD really eat into such a large market share within 5 years? The risks are not small.