# Palladium's 2025 Outlook: Why This Precious Metal Could Keep Sliding

**The palladium story is pretty straightforward: it peaked at $3,002/oz back in Feb 2022, and it's been mostly downhill since.** Spent most of 2024 bouncing between $900-$1,100, with a brief spike to $1,200 in October when the US tightened sanctions on Russian metals.

Here's the problem: **80% of palladium demand comes from auto catalytic converters**, and that sector is getting hit from multiple angles:

**The EV headwind** — Electric vehicles don't need palladium. EV adoption is accelerating (7% market share in 2023 → 13.2% in 2024 → 16.7% expected in 2025), and even though the growth rate is cooling due to charging infrastructure concerns and range anxiety, it's still cannibalistic to traditional auto demand.

**Supply tsunami incoming** — The World Platinum Investment Council expects the palladium market to flip into surplus by 2025, with oversupply hitting 897,000 ounces. That's driven by:
- 1.2M oz bump in recycling supply
- Russian and South African mines returning to historic production levels

**Trump wildcards** — Proposed 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico could wreck North American auto demand. But he's also pushing to kill EV subsidies (which would raise EV prices by ~$7,500), potentially slowing EV adoption. It's a mixed bag.

**The verdict?** CPM Group and Heraeus both expect palladium to stay rangebound in 2025 — likely $800-$1,200 range with **downward bias**. Weak demand + rising supply = structural headwinds that'll keep this metal under pressure.