Lithium mining anxiety is coming: with a global shortfall expected by 2030, is it time to buy the dip?

The latest data is shocking: global EV sales have experienced a big pump, with 2.3 million units sold in the first half of this year, a growth rate of 25%. However, the problem is that lithium mining capacity is far from keeping up — there are only 45 lithium mines operating globally, and the annual new capacity is not even close to experts' expectations.

According to the IEA's forecast, an additional 14 million EVs are set to be sold this year. At this rate, the lithium ore shortage will extend until 2030. The good news is that the recent major market adjustment has pushed high-quality lithium companies into a technically oversold position.

Core assets overview:

Albemarle (ALB) recently dropped from $250 to $182, now at a support level since early 2022. The company's Q2 net profit surged by 32% to $650 million, with an annual guidance raise of 40-55%. Institutions like RBC and Bank of America are raising their target prices, with one analyst calling for $260. Additionally, Exxon Mobil is in discussions with ALB regarding a supply agreement.

Lithium Americas (LAC) has also been hit to $16.63 (this year's high was $22.92). A split has just been approved: the Argentina project and the Nevada Thacker Pass project will operate separately, with the first batch of deliveries expected in the second half of 2026, and the revenue certainty is strong thereafter.

Piedmont Lithium (PLL) fell from $62 to $44.80, resting on the support level at the end of 2022. With the advancement of the North Carolina mine and the Tennessee hydroxide lithium plant, once completed, the annual capacity will reach 60,000 tons, equivalent to 1/3 of the planned capacity in the U.S. Roth MKM has set a target price of $190.

Standard Lithium (SLI) fell from $4.8 to $3.63. Its East Texas project has achieved the highest historical concentration of brine lithium in North America (634mg/L), and Exxon has acquired exploration rights for 120,000 acres in the adjacent area, planning to build the largest lithium processing plant in North America, with an annual output of 75,000 to 100,000 tons.

Lazy Plan:

If you find individual stocks troublesome, you can consider ETFs:

• LIT (Global X Lithium Battery ETF): Covers the entire industry chain, with a fee rate of 0.75%, and is currently at a support level.
• LITP (Sprott Lithium Miners ETF): Pure mining companies, fee rate 0.65%

Current Situation: Leading lithium companies worldwide are anxious about insufficient production capacity, and this adjustment has brought valuations down to a relatively reasonable range. As for risks, variables include weak macroeconomic conditions, EV sales falling short of expectations, and new production capacity not meeting projections. However, from the mid-term perspective of the supply-demand gap in 2030, the current pullback is actually an opportunity to get on board.