Recession Playbook: What Actually Gets Cheaper (And What Doesn't)

The basic rule: Less money in people’s pockets = lower demand for non-essentials = prices drop. But it’s not that simple.

What Usually Tanks in Price

Housing - Already seeing it happen. San Francisco down 8.2%, San Jose down 8.2%, Seattle down 7.8% from 2022 peaks. Some markets could see 20% drops across 180+ U.S. cities.

Discretionary stuff - Travel, entertainment, luxury goods all get hit hard when people tighten their belts.

Gas (sometimes) - 2008 recession? Gas crashed 60% to $1.62/gallon. But here’s the catch: external factors matter. Ukraine situation keeping prices elevated means don’t count on it this time.

What Stays Stubborn

Cars - Normally would nosedive, but not now. Pandemic supply chain destroyed inventory while demand stayed high. Dealers aren’t sitting on excess stock, so they’re not forced to negotiate. Charlie Chesbrough from Cox Automotive: “Through 2023, not much discounting coming. No forced dealer negotiations.”

Essentials (food, utilities) - People still gotta eat and pay bills. Demand barely budges, prices hold.

The Real Move

Recessions = buyer’s market for big-ticket items IF you’ve got cash ready. Move some assets into liquid cash before it hits, then deploy when prices bottom. The play isn’t sitting it out—it’s positioning early.

Bottom line: Not all recessions hit the same. Local economy matters. Do your homework before buying.