UBER or GRAB? Which ride-hailing stock is really worth it?

The ride-hailing business is becoming increasingly competitive. UBER and GRAB are both operating in this field, but their strategies are completely different—one is focused on global expansion, while the other is concentrating on deepening its presence in Southeast Asia. Which one is more worth entering a position in? Let's take a closer look.

UBER: The Confidence of Global Players

To be honest, UBER is huge. With a market value of 199 billion USD, its scale is right there.

Recently, this guy's financial report data is quite impressive: Q2 continues to exceed expectations, with Q3 guidance for gross order value of $48-49.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17-21%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $21.9-22.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30-36%. What does this mean? It means the growth rate is accelerating.

The business is also expanding its boundaries. We just partnered with Best Buy for an electronics delivery collaboration, integrating consumer electronics from over 800 stores into Uber Eats. It may seem insignificant, but this is diversifying the delivery categories and gradually expanding the imagination space of a “universal delivery platform.”

The cash flow is even more astonishing. In 2024, free cash flow reached a historical high of 65 billion USD, and adjusted EBITDA also reached 6.5 billion. What does this mean? There is so much money that it can be squandered - just announced a 20 billion USD buyback (previously authorized 7 billion for 2024, and accelerated completion of 1.5 billion in Q1). This extravagant buyback strategy essentially sends a signal to the market: we have confidence in our business.

Autonomous driving is not foolish either. UBER chose to cooperate instead of developing in-house, directly saving huge R&D costs, which is quite smart.

What about the valuation? A 3.45x forward sales multiple is considered average in the tech sector.

GRAB: The Ambition of the Local King in Southeast Asia

The story of GRAB started with a taxi app, which forcefully evolved into a “do everything” super app. Food delivery, electric scooters, digital wallets, financial services—almost covering all the travel and consumption scenarios that people in Southeast Asia can think of in their daily lives.

The data looks pretty good. Q2 GMV on demand (covering travel + delivery) grew by 21% year-on-year. The annual guidance is $3.33-3.4 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 19-22%. The ability to maintain double-digit growth on a high base indicates that there are still stories in the local market.

Recent actions are also worth watching:

• Collaborate with AWS to optimize cloud infrastructure, reduce costs, and improve efficiency.
• Invest in WeRide (a Level 4 autonomous driving company in China), planning to deploy unmanned taxis in Southeast Asia in the first half of 2026.

This operation is, in a sense, also an attempt to overtake on a curve—directly upgrading transport capacity with advanced autonomous driving technology.

But there is a big problem here

The valuation has started raising alarms. GRAB has a forward sales multiple of 5.6 times, nearly twice that of UBER. Its market value is only $21.3 billion, less than one-tenth of UBER's.

Why is the valuation so high? Mainly because the market is betting on growth in Southeast Asia. But the problem is also very real:

1. Geographical risks are too concentrated: Only in 8 countries in Southeast Asia. Once the economy here declines (inflation, weak consumption, and supply chain issues are all happening), there are no other regions to hedge against.
2. Intense competition pressure: There are still many local players in the delivery sector targeting.
3. Shareholders are not so friendly: There isn't an aggressive buyback strategy like UBER, and dividends are also low.
4. Disadvantages in Scale: In uncertain times, this “small but beautiful” approach can easily backfire.

Who is the more stable choice

From an investment perspective, UBER seems more like the insurance answer:

• Global decentralized income structure
• Healthy cash flow and aggressive buybacks support the stock price
• Valuation is relatively reasonable (although not cheap either)
• Elephant-sized scale, strong risk resistance ability

GRAB is not bad, but the current valuation has priced in too many growth expectations. The story of Southeast Asia is a true story, but it will take time to wait for the story to fully materialize at this price level.

Both have a Hold rating, but if I had to choose one, the value proposition of UBER is clearer right now.