Why a $6.2B Billionaire Is Dumping AI Stocks and Going All-In on Bitcoin

Paul Singer doesn’t do FOMO. The Elliott Investment Management founder just made a bold contrarian move: shorting Nvidia with put options while tripling down on Bitcoin plays—and the market is taking notice.

The AI Reality Check Nobody Wants to Hear

In a rare interview, Singer dropped a truth bomb that’s been brewing in crypto circles for months: “AI is way over its skis.” Not that it’s useless—but the hype cycle has completely detached from real-world utility. While Wall Street keeps pumping AI stocks, Singer’s fund loaded up on Nvidia puts in Q4 2024, betting the king of chips finally faces gravity.

His logic? Current leverage and risk-taking across markets are at historic peaks. Governments spent years artificially suppressing rates, and now everyone’s leveraged to the moon. When sentiment shifts, it won’t be gentle.

Nvidia’s problem isn’t weak earnings—it’s that expectations were already baked in. The stock priced in perfection. DeepSeek’s emergence only adds fuel: if China’s running cutting-edge AI on cheaper infrastructure, do Western tech companies really need to burn billions on capex?

The Bitcoin Pivot

While shorting AI, Singer went the opposite direction on Bitcoin infrastructure. Elliott tripled its stake in MicroStrategy (MSTR) from 5M to 15M shares in Q4—right before the election wave that sent Bitcoin flying. Smart timing or long-term conviction? Probably both.

Singer’s reasoning reveals a geopolitical angle most investors miss: the global reserve currency system is under siege. Countries are building alternatives to the dollar. Bitcoin fits that narrative perfectly—and it’s wild that the Trump administration is now pro-crypto while simultaneously claiming to defend dollar dominance.

MicroStrategy’s strategy is leveraged Bitcoin accumulation (the company now owns ~2% of all BTC). That means 2x gains when Bitcoin rises, but also 2x losses on the way down. It’s not for risk-averse portfolios.

The Wall Street Consensus

All 11 analysts covering MicroStrategy recommend buying, with average targets implying 115% upside from current prices (as of late Feb). KBW just initiated with “outperform,” citing the levered Bitcoin play’s appeal and upcoming capital raises.

The Bigger Picture

Singer’s move isn’t really about picking individual stocks—it’s a macroeconomic thesis: AI is overvalued, central banks created systemic risk through years of easy money, and Bitcoin offers both a hedge and an asymmetric opportunity as de-dollarization accelerates.

Whether he’s early or right remains to be seen. But when an 80-year-old billionaire who took on Argentina’s government for 15 years changes positioning this dramatically, it’s worth asking why.