The $8B Tesla Bet That Keeps Growing

Ron Baron isn’t your typical hedge fund manager. Baron Capital manages $45B, and his track record speaks volumes—15% annualized returns vs. S&P 500’s measly 10%. Here’s what’s wild: he turned a small $400M Tesla bet (2014-2016) into an $8B personal windfall, and he’s still holding.

Friday on CNBC, Baron dropped some serious conviction:

• $2,500 TSLA target in 10 years (that’s roughly 5x from current levels)
• “I won’t sell Tesla or SpaceX in my lifetime”—personal shares untouched
• Still 40% of his net worth in TSLA despite trimming 1/3 of client positions

His thesis? Tesla’s reinvesting profits to become “a much bigger business.” He frames Elon as the ultimate key-man risk—without him, there’s no Tesla. On the pay package, Baron notes Elon only wins if TSLA appreciates 6x, so incentives are aligned.

The take: When a $45B AUM manager with a 40-year track record of beating the market is still this bullish and personally holding through volatility, it’s worth paying attention. Whether you agree or not, this is conviction-driven investing at its finest.