Cocoa futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but there is heavy uncertainty on the supply side.

Cocoa futures in New York rose 0.83% today, while the December contracts in London fell 2.06%. The market rebounded from a 1.75-year low, mainly driven by a decline in cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast—between October and mid-November this year, the country's cocoa arrivals totaled 618,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

But this rebound may just be fleeting. The long and short factors are in a chaotic battle:

**Negative news accumulation**
- The EU delays the implementation of the "Deforestation Regulation" by one year to ease supply concerns.
- The quantity of cocoa beans in West Africa reached a 5-year high, increasing by 7% compared to last year.
- The Trump administration has removed the 10% tariff on unplanted goods in the U.S. (including cocoa)
- Global chocolate demand weakens: US Q3 cocoa grind up 3.2% year-on-year (but the data is questionable), European Q3 grind hits a 10-year low, and Asia Q3 is the worst in 9 years.

**Bullish news is scarce**
- U.S. port inventory falls to an 8.25-month low
- Nigeria (the fifth largest producer in the world) is expected to see an 11% decline in output.
- The global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 reaches a 60-year high.

In simple terms: With supply pressure easing and weak demand, cocoa prices will continue to be suppressed. The rebound is just a short-term emotional correction, and the trend remains unchanged.