Tesla's autonomous driving dream meets reality

TSL's roller coaster in 2025: at the beginning of the year, it fell due to trade risk, but later rebounded due to the AI + Bots concept. Last week, it released the Q3 earnings report—revenue of $28.6 billion (exceeding expectations), but profit metrics went off track (EPS $0.50 vs expected $0.55), and the gross margin also did not meet expectations.

The market has given Tesla a valuation of $1.5 trillion, which is more than ten times that of Ford + GM combined. Why? It's all based on visions of the future—AI, robot taxis, Bots.

The question arises

Former Tesla AI chief Karpathy poured cold water on the podcast: Don't overestimate the progress of autonomous driving, there's still a long way to go. Musk has been saying for years “It's coming soon,” but the latest robotaxi still needs human supervision in Texas, while competitor Waymo has been able to drive without a driver since 2020. Additionally, Tesla is facing more and more lawsuits and compensation claims regarding its autonomous driving capabilities.

Core Contradiction

A major support for Tesla's valuation is the commercialization of autonomous driving technology. However, currently, this business is far from truly being profitable. Musk's newly approved exorbitant compensation plan (potentially worth $1 trillion) includes several milestones, such as the operation of 1 million Bots taxis and 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions—these are all big question marks.

Bottom Line: TSL is no longer just a car manufacturer; it is betting on a technological gamble. The potential rewards are huge, but the risks are not small. Before investing, one must consider whether they can accept this level of uncertainty.