Will Palladium Collapse in 2025? Here's What the Data Says

Palladium peaked at $3,002/oz back in February 2022, then took a nosedive. Fast forward to 2024, and it’s been bouncing around the $900-$1,100 range like a stuck ball—until October’s brief spike to $1,200 thanks to fresh US sanctions on Russian metals.

But here’s the issue: 80% of palladium demand comes from auto catalytic converters, and that sector is about to face headwinds.

The EV Problem

Electric vehicles don’t need palladium. At all. While EV adoption is still climbing—from 7% market share in 2023 to an expected 16.7% in 2025—the growth is slowing down. Why? Market saturation, charging anxiety, and range fears are real. Car sales might tick up 1.7% to 89.6 million units globally in 2025, but more of those will be EVs, not gas cars.

Adding fuel to the fire: Trump’s incoming tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico) could tank North American auto demand, while his proposed elimination of EV subsidies ($7,500 price hike per vehicle) adds another layer of uncertainty.

Supply is About to Flood the Market

Here’s where it gets ugly. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts palladium will flip from deficit to a 897,000-ounce surplus by 2025. Why? Russian and South African mines are ramping back up to historic levels, plus recycling supply is jumping 1.2 million ounces.

The verdict: CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian expects palladium to stay in the $900-$1,000 range with a bearish tilt. Heraeus Precious Metals agrees, betting on $800-$1,200 trading range.

Bottom line—2025 looks like a buyer’s market for palladium, not a seller’s.