Can Nebius break through the production capacity bottleneck to achieve revenue explosion?

Key Information: Nebius (NBIS) is aggressively expanding production, but the core issue it faces is: Can the capacity constraints be broken?

The third quarter capacity of this AI infrastructure company has been completely sold out, and the new capacity was snapped up immediately. The question arises— it plans to expand its contracted power from 1GW to 2.5GW by 2026, connecting 800MW-1GW of electricity by the end of the year. This requires investment, with CapEx rising from $2 billion to $5 billion by 2025.

How is the revenue side? The guidance for 2025 has been revised down from $450-630 million to $500-550 million, mainly due to issues with the timing of capacity coming online. However, the ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) target is $900-1,100 million by the end of 2025 and $700-900 million by the end of 2026 — this growth rate is indeed impressive.

But competition has intensified. Microsoft is planning to increase its AI production capacity by more than 80% by 2025, with data center space doubling. Even so, Microsoft is still claiming tight production capacity. CoreWeave is also in a frenzy but is similarly constrained by supply chain issues, with revenue expectations for 2025 cut from $5.15-5.35 billion to $5.05-5.15 billion.

Investment Perspective: NBIS stock price has increased by 144% over the past 6 months, but Zacks has given it a level 4 rating (sell), with a P/B of only 4.66X compared to the industry average of 39.95X. In the short term, it depends on the delivery time of production capacity, and in the long term, it hinges on whether it can break through the bottlenecks in power and chip supply.