#ETH巨鲸增持 BTC falls below the 86,000 mark, hitting a low of 85,604 USD. Behind this wave of decline lies a greater hidden danger — 14 trillion USD in carry trades is collapsing.

The Bank of Japan is taking real action. The probability of a rate hike in December is 76%, and it will soar to 90% in January next year. The yield on Japanese government bonds has surged to a peak not seen since 2008. Inflation pressure combined with the continued depreciation of the yen is forcing the Bank of Japan to intervene.

What does this have to do with the crypto market? In the past few years, a large amount of funds borrowed at ultra-low interest rates in yen were used to purchase dollar assets—U.S. stocks and BTC were the main targets. Now that interest rates have risen, the cost of borrowing money skyrockets, and these funds need to quickly close positions and convert back to yen to repay debts. Global liquidity has suddenly tightened, and crypto assets are the first to be sold off.

Data doesn't lie: In the past 24 hours, mainstream cryptocurrencies have fallen by more than 5%, with liquidation amounts exceeding $400 million. From the high point of 126,000 in November, BTC has retraced more than 20%. ETF net outflow is 3.5 billion, and the single-day liquidation record reached 900 million. Leveraged longs have been completely cleaned out, whales are also reducing their positions, and a death cross has appeared in the technical analysis.

Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term. Before the central bank's interest rate meeting on December 18-19, market fluctuations will only become more intense. In the medium term, we need to watch the Federal Reserve's stance—if there is a rate cut in December, it might provide some relief; if not, it will be a double blow. In the long term, there is no need to panic excessively; after the round of rate hikes in 2024, BTC reached a new high three months later, but the core issue right now is to survive.

Pay attention to a few key time points: the Federal Reserve decision in mid-December, the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19, and a possible rate hike in January 2026. Control your position during this period, don't go all in. $BTC $ETH