Coffee Market Gets a Jolt: Robusta Surges on Vietnam Flooding

Coffee traders are wide awake today—robusta futures just hit a 2-week high, up +2.37%, while arabica is climbing +0.57%. Here’s what’s moving the needle:

The Vietnam Factor: Heavy rains are pounding Dak Lak, Vietnam’s coffee heartland, delaying harvests and threatening crop yields. More showers are in the forecast. Since Vietnam dominates global robusta supply, any weather hiccup there ripples through prices fast.

Brazil Gets a Break: Meanwhile, Brazil’s coffee regions are expecting rain later this week—normally bearish for prices, but actually good news for crop development. The twist? Brazilian coffee imports to the US are still crushed by Trump’s 40% tariff, which is shrinking supplies and tightening the global market.

The Inventory Squeeze: ICE arabica stocks hit a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags this week. Robusta inventories dropped to a 4-month low. US importers are dodging new Brazilian coffee contracts because of tariffs, and purchases from Brazil nosedived 52% year-over-year.

The Big Picture: Global coffee production is expected to hit a record 178.68 million bags in 2025/26 (+2.5% y/y), but uneven regional supply—Vietnam up 6% to 1.76 MMT, Brazil mixed—means tighter near-term availability. Robusta is the story to watch.