The meeting next Wednesday might be more important than anyone thinks.
On December 1st, Powell will attend an event at Stanford to commemorate Schultz, but don't expect him to reveal anything—he is currently in the quiet period before the interest rate decision, and according to the rules, he cannot talk about the economy, let alone mention policy direction. In other words, you won't hear any official news before next Wednesday.
There are no new signals, and the market is moving faster instead. Traders have already voted with their feet: nearly 90% believe there will be a 25 basis point cut this time. The rate cut itself is actually no surprise; what is truly worth paying attention to is the dot plot that will be released after the meeting.
That chart will tell you how the Federal Reserve views the interest rate trend for 2026 – whether they plan to pivot sooner or are prepared to maintain a low interest rate environment for a longer period. This is the answer everyone wants to know.
Why is this meeting unusual? Because consecutive interest rate cuts mean that the Federal Reserve acknowledges that the economy is slowing moderately. If the dot plot releases a more dovish signal, the direction of the dollar, global liquidity, the pricing logic of U.S. stocks, gold, and even crypto assets will all need to start over.
For the cryptocurrency market, the past week has actually anticipated the expectations of interest rate cuts. If the dot plot is dovish enough, there may be another round of liquidity heating up before the end of the year; however, if the Federal Reserve's stance is not so gentle, there could also be a quick correction after the "expectation fulfillment" in the short term. That's how the market works; rises and falls often hinge on a single thought.
In short, the key this time is not what Powell will say, but what he won't say—and how the market will interpret the information revealed by the dot plot behind the silence.
How will assets move from 2025 to 2026? The clues might be hidden in that picture.
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GasFeeBeggar
· 10h ago
The dot plot is the real trump card, Powell is very tight-lipped
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It's another quiet period, another guessing game, market players are unsure
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A 25 basis point cut has become a foregone conclusion, but the roadmap for '26 is the paper that can change everything
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It feels like this wave will either big pump or big dump, there's not much in between
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Instead of listening to Powell ramble, it's better to keep an eye on that dot plot
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If the liquidity heats up again, it's time to pick up some bargains at the bottom
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Simply put, it's about waiting for the Fed to give a hint, right now everything is futile
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The key to the year-end market lies in the dot plot, whoever cracks it first wins
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90% of people are betting on rate cuts, what about the reverse operation, will there be a surprise this time
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What I fear most is that the dot plot is both dovish and hawkish, leaving the market completely confused.
The meeting next Wednesday might be more important than anyone thinks.
On December 1st, Powell will attend an event at Stanford to commemorate Schultz, but don't expect him to reveal anything—he is currently in the quiet period before the interest rate decision, and according to the rules, he cannot talk about the economy, let alone mention policy direction. In other words, you won't hear any official news before next Wednesday.
There are no new signals, and the market is moving faster instead. Traders have already voted with their feet: nearly 90% believe there will be a 25 basis point cut this time. The rate cut itself is actually no surprise; what is truly worth paying attention to is the dot plot that will be released after the meeting.
That chart will tell you how the Federal Reserve views the interest rate trend for 2026 – whether they plan to pivot sooner or are prepared to maintain a low interest rate environment for a longer period. This is the answer everyone wants to know.
Why is this meeting unusual? Because consecutive interest rate cuts mean that the Federal Reserve acknowledges that the economy is slowing moderately. If the dot plot releases a more dovish signal, the direction of the dollar, global liquidity, the pricing logic of U.S. stocks, gold, and even crypto assets will all need to start over.
For the cryptocurrency market, the past week has actually anticipated the expectations of interest rate cuts. If the dot plot is dovish enough, there may be another round of liquidity heating up before the end of the year; however, if the Federal Reserve's stance is not so gentle, there could also be a quick correction after the "expectation fulfillment" in the short term. That's how the market works; rises and falls often hinge on a single thought.
In short, the key this time is not what Powell will say, but what he won't say—and how the market will interpret the information revealed by the dot plot behind the silence.
How will assets move from 2025 to 2026? The clues might be hidden in that picture.