Coffee Traders Eyeing Vietnam Flooding Risk

Robusta coffee just hit a 2-week high, up 2.37% today as heavy rains batter Vietnam's Dak Lak province—the country's largest coffee-growing hub. Delayed harvests + crop damage forecasts = supply tightening concerns.

Meanwhile, arabica rose 0.57%, fueled by a weakening dollar and short-covering trades. But there's a supply squeeze brewing:

▪ ICE arabica inventories crashed to 1.75-year lows (396,513 bags on Tuesday)
▪ ICE robusta stocks fell to 4-month lows today
▪ US imports from Brazil tanked 52% (Aug-Oct period) thanks to Trump's 40% tariffs

The plot twist? Vietnam's planning a 6% production hike to 1.76 MMT for 2025/26, but if those rains intensify, that could flip bearish fast. Brazil's forecasting a massive +29% arabica yield next year, which could eventually pressure prices—but that's 2026/27 story.

Bottom line: Short-term supply fears are pushing robusta higher, but long-term oversupply signals could cap gains. Weather-watching season officially open.