The first trading day of December has brought a "door painting" market, and this start is really not looking good. What kind of market can we expect in the remaining 30 days? It's hard not to have a question mark in mind.

Interestingly, the BTC hourly chart did not continue to widen the decline after forming a door. Although the support level of 86067 was briefly broken, the price quickly recovered. More importantly, a "Three Advancing Soldiers" candlestick pattern can be seen on the chart—this is usually a bullish signal.

But the question arises: even if it rises, how far can it go?

87763 is a hurdle. This is the high point of a natural rebound after the recent drop; if we can't get past this level, there's no way to look for higher spaces. Moreover, 86067 has already been tested once, and if the price doesn't rise above 87763, it's highly likely that it will come back to test this support again.

Will 86067 still hold by then? I remain cautious. Once it breaks down, the range of 86067-83575 is all within the decline zone. Although there is 84191 in between as a buffer, if it really comes down, this position will likely only delay the pace slightly and won't have a real supporting effect.

Looking at the volume again: although the price is rebounding, the trading volume is shrinking. A rebound with decreasing volume usually cannot push the price far. Therefore, I tend to believe that this is merely a technical rebound after a decline, and cannot be considered a genuine stop of the downward trend. Unless the price can return above 87763, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable.

**Several reference points for operation:**
- Traders on the right can pay attention to 86869, and a breakthrough with volume can be considered for chasing long positions to take advantage of the rebound.
- If 86528 breaks down with volume and the rebound cannot recover, you can short on the right side, and remember to set a stop loss.
- If the hourly level breaks through and stabilizes at 87763, look up to 88287-89197; if it cannot reach 87763, that is the current resistance ceiling.
- If it falls below 86072 on the 4-hour level, look down to 85221-84127; if it breaks and cannot recover, the second phase of the decline will begin.

Last thing to say: The 4-hour chart has just stabilized above the EMA20 and the 50-day moving average, and before it could get warm, it has dropped again. A rebound must be able to reclaim these two moving averages for it to be considered a true stop of the decline, which would also indicate a possibility of reversal. Otherwise, the probability of retracing to the previous low of 80602 is quite high.

Risk still needs to be noted, everyone should grasp the rhythm themselves.