Don't be distracted by the gossip of "Powell resigning". The real source of today's plummet is on the other side of the Pacific - those people in Tokyo are finally ready to take action.

To put it simply: for the past decade or so, global institutions have been playing a divine trick - borrowing yen at zero cost and then throwing it into high-yield pools like BTC and US stocks. The Bank of Japan has been printing money and flooding the market, making borrowing yen almost free. But now, Japan's inflation is becoming unbearable, and for the first time in 30 years, it is about to say goodbye to negative interest rates.

What does this mean? Those institutions borrowing yen suddenly find that not only do they have to pay interest, but the exchange rate is also fluctuating in the opposite direction. What to do? They can only frantically sell off their most liquid assets to pay off their debts. BTC, as a barometer of risk assets, naturally became the first sacrificial offering.

The more exciting things are yet to come. The schedule in December is simply a death march:
- December 11: Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting ( market bets on a 87.6% probability of a rate cut )
- December 20: The largest options expiration in history

These two time points represent a concentrated area of artillery fire in traditional finance and the liquidation day in the cryptocurrency market. With pressure from both sides, the crypto market is bound to be turbulent.

**Talk about some practical operational ideas:**

Spot traders, don't panic. Most altcoins have already plummeted to historical lows; selling at this time is just giving away your head. Panic selling often occurs just before dawn.

Those who engage in contracts must exercise restraint. In December, the situation is such that there's liquidity withdrawal in Japan, and volatility is expected in the U.S., making the risk of forced liquidation exceedingly high. Don't ask me how I know.

Focus on two indicators: the USD/JPY exchange rate and the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds. If these two are unstable, the pressure to deleverage will not stop. They are the true barometers.

When Tokyo starts closing the sluice gates, the firefighting in Washington may only be a drop in the bucket. This December, surviving is more important than making money.

What about you? Are you planning to just lie flat and dollar-cost average through it, or are you going to stay in cash and observe for now? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.