Who exactly crashed the market?

In the past two days, Bitcoin has plummeted by 5%, and the entire network is filled with cries of liquidation. Most people believe it is the fake news about "Powell's resignation" causing the chaos, but the real trigger is hidden in Tokyo.

The Bank of Japan is quietly detonating a bomb of global liquidity.

First, let's look at the first signal: Japan's 10-year government bond yield has surged to 1.1%, the highest point since the 2008 financial crisis. What does this mean? For the past decade, global investors have been borrowing yen at nearly zero interest rates, converting it into dollars, and then rushing into high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This strategy has a professional term - yen carry trade.

But now, the rules of the game have changed.

The second signal is more lethal: market predictions show that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has exceeded 60%. Meanwhile, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December is as high as 87.6%. This creates a scissors gap - the cost of borrowing in yen skyrockets, while the yield on dollar assets declines.

The result is: institutions begin to operate in reverse, selling off Bitcoin and other assets to exchange for yen to repay debts. The stronger the yen appreciates, the more intense the selling pressure. Bitcoin is just the first domino to fall; the severity of the situation for altcoins may be even worse.

So don't just focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Even if the U.S. cuts interest rates, it won't stop the wave of Japanese funds returning. As long as the yen continues to strengthen and Japanese bond yields keep rising, the pressure for global deleveraging will not stop.

At this position, do you dare to bottom fish?