Is the Fed about to tear itself apart? Out of the 12 voting committee members, 5 are dissenting.

Question

[币界] The Fed might be in for an internal conflict this time.

For a long time, this institution has been best at “playing nice”—even if there are internal disagreements, it has to present a united front externally. But now, among the 12 voting FOMC members, surprisingly, 5 clearly oppose or question the continuation of interest rate cuts, while the 3 core figures on the board are resolutely in favor of cuts. Given this situation, multiple opposing votes seem almost certain.

The question arises: if such a split scenario really occurs, who should the market listen to? Will the policy credibility directly collapse? More critically, the outside world has been monitoring the “independence” issue of the Fed—once the internal discord breaks out, those conspiracy theories about being “politically pressured” are likely to resurface.

Interestingly, the possible compromise solution now is: this meeting will cut interest rates first, but Powell will leave a caveat at the press conference - for example, “we might need to hit the brakes later.” Waller, a representative of the rate-cutting camp (who started warning about the unemployment rate being dangerous last summer), has already stated: what happens after December will depend on the statistics bureau completing the data. After all, the government just shut down for 43 days, and a bunch of economic data is still in a “missing” state.

In simple terms, the key variable in this game is not some profound theory, but those statistical figures that have been delayed by government shutdowns. Before the data is released, no one can convince anyone.

LightningAllInHero · Accepted Answer

This is the true "flexibility"! First, lower it and then talk, pump up the market, and later shift the blame to the data.

Fren_Not_Food · Answer

The Fed is really going to self-destruct, a 5 vs 3 situation has directly torn the mask off.

If there are really many votes against this time, the market will probably collapse again...

Powell&#39;s "let&#39;s lower rates first and talk later" is truly brilliant, it&#39;s a skillful balancing act.

Why does it feel even messier than the crypto world? At least we can speak frankly.

So, will they lower interest rates or not? This suspense is amazing.

BlockchainRetirementHome · Answer

This is interesting, the Fed is staging a "nice on the surface, stabbing in the back" big show.

After a drop, they say they won&#39;t decrease, then they decrease again, the market&#39;s sentiment is like a roller coaster... we retail investors are just waiting to be played for suckers.

Powell&#39;s move is clever, first giving the market a taste of candy, then sweet-talking about hitting the brakes, perfectly balancing all factions, this political wisdom has some substance.

Are the 5 dissenters on the wrong medication? Or is it that someone already knows the script for what&#39;s to come?

Waiting to see, after this meeting ends, the coin price will again perform a classic trilogy of "plummet, rebound, and continue to plummet."

TokenAlchemist · Answer

nah the fed's transparency theater is collapsing... watching 5 dissents actually materialize would expose the whole signal vs noise apparatus they've been running. policy credibility doesn't survive this kind of fragmentation tbh

fren_with_benefits · Answer

The Fed is really going to perform a "palace intrigue drama", 5v3 going head-to-head, this thing is going to explode.

EternalMiner · Answer

Haha, the Fed has begun to perform the "lowering interest rates while hinting at raising them" magic trick. I think we will only know the truth when Powell delivers his speech.