Vietnam Floods Push Robusta Coffee to 2-Week Peak Amid US Tariff Chaos

Robusta coffee is having its moment—January futures jumped +2.37% today, hitting a 2-week high, while arabica climbed +0.57%. The story? Heavy rains hammering Vietnam’s Dak Lak province (world’s largest robusta producer) are delaying harvests and threatening crop damage.

But here’s where it gets messy: The tariff trap is reshaping coffee flows. Trump’s 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee is decimating US import demand—American purchases from Brazil crashed 52% (Aug-Oct vs. last year), dropping to under 1 million bags. Result? ICE arabica inventories hit a 1.75-year low at 396,513 bags; robusta storage fell to 4-month lows.

The supply picture is split:

• Bearish: Vietnam’s 2025/26 output projected to hit 31M bags (+6% YoY, 4-year high). Brazil’s 2025 harvest forecast just got trimmed by Conab to 55.2M bags, but 2026/27 could explode—StoneX says 70.7M bags incoming (+29% YoY).
• Bullish: Global coffee exports actually fell 0.3% YoY. ICE inventory crunch is real. Brazil’s arabica-heavy Minas Gerais region got only 42% of normal November rainfall—crop stress.

TL;DR: Short-term squeeze from US stockpile depletion + Vietnam weather chaos = price support. Long-term? Massive production coming from Brazil in 2026/27 could flip the script. Traders watching ICE coffee inventories like hawks.