Today’s sudden fall, I finally figured out what’s going on.
First, let's mention two things that are not the reasons: one, it has nothing to do with the regulation of the crypto market in certain regions—if that were the case, the market would have crashed over the weekend. Two, it is not the rumor about a certain central bank governor resigning early—their term does not end until June next year, and based on their usual style, it is unlikely they would quit midway due to external pressure.
The real trigger? It was the sudden interest rate hike signal released by the Bank of Japan early this morning around seven or eight o'clock. As soon as the news broke, the yen began to plummet against the dollar, and the cryptocurrency market almost simultaneously crashed, with the timeline perfectly aligned.
This matter needs to be taken seriously - another major economy's central bank has started to tighten monetary policy, no longer "flooding the market" as before. Now, the market can probably only rely on the United States to exert some influence to slow down the pace here in Japan. But to be honest, this kind of game is very difficult to predict.
Once the trend of tightening liquidity takes shape, the long-term impact on the entire cryptocurrency market should not be underestimated.
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TokenomicsShaman
· 21h ago
The Bank of Japan's move is truly remarkable; if the carry trade collapses, we’ll have to suffer the consequences. Now we are entirely reliant on whether the Fed can exert some effort; otherwise, the tightening of liquidity cannot be stopped at all.
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CryptoNomics
· 21h ago
actually, if you run the correlation matrix on jpy/usd movements vs. btc price action, the r-squared is borderline embarrassing. your timeline alignment means nothing without controlling for endogenous variables, tbh.
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MrDecoder
· 21h ago
The Bank of Japan's move is really brilliant, directly targeting the lifeline of liquidity. The previous noises were just smokescreens; the key still lies in the actions of the Central Banks. Now, the tightening curtain has just been pulled back.
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VitaliksTwin
· 21h ago
The Bank of Japan is really causing trouble, and now the ripple effects are starting to show.
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FlashLoanLarry
· 21h ago
lol jpy carry unwind hits different when you're not positioned for it. liquidity evaporates fast, timeline checks out perfectly. told the thesis early though... macro tightening cycles don't care about your bags.
Today’s sudden fall, I finally figured out what’s going on.
First, let's mention two things that are not the reasons: one, it has nothing to do with the regulation of the crypto market in certain regions—if that were the case, the market would have crashed over the weekend. Two, it is not the rumor about a certain central bank governor resigning early—their term does not end until June next year, and based on their usual style, it is unlikely they would quit midway due to external pressure.
The real trigger? It was the sudden interest rate hike signal released by the Bank of Japan early this morning around seven or eight o'clock. As soon as the news broke, the yen began to plummet against the dollar, and the cryptocurrency market almost simultaneously crashed, with the timeline perfectly aligned.
This matter needs to be taken seriously - another major economy's central bank has started to tighten monetary policy, no longer "flooding the market" as before. Now, the market can probably only rely on the United States to exert some influence to slow down the pace here in Japan. But to be honest, this kind of game is very difficult to predict.
Once the trend of tightening liquidity takes shape, the long-term impact on the entire cryptocurrency market should not be underestimated.