In December's crypto market, there are several variables you must clarify: #ETH走势分析 .

Let's talk about the interest rate cut—market expectations are like a roller coaster. Last week, the bets on the interest rate cut soared from 45% to 80%, and Ethereum responded by jumping from $2800 to nearly $3100. As a result, this morning there were rumors about Powell possibly stepping down early, and the reason? It is said that the new government has long designated a successor. The market immediately tightened its nerves again.

The issue of tariff dividends is even more interesting. Last month it was loudly discussed, but now there isn’t even a shadow of it. If it can really be realized this month, it would be equivalent to directly injecting liquidity into the market—this is the expectation gap that everyone is currently focused on.

Personnel changes may be more critical than the policy itself. There is a high probability that a new nomination for the Federal Reserve Chairman will be officially announced before Christmas, with Hassett being the most favored candidate. You understand this person's stance; it is completely different from the current cautious approach. If there is indeed a change, will the pace of interest rate cuts accelerate? The market is betting on this possibility, but don't forget that this is just speculation.

There’s another time point: the ETH hard fork upgrade the day after tomorrow. However, such technical benefits are often digested in advance. When the "expected good news" materializes, it can easily become a trigger for selling pressure, which is an old rule.

As for those personnel gossip, it will definitely create volatility in the short term, but the Federal Reserve's policy framework has long been set, and no matter who sits in that position, the general direction won't deviate too much. The current market activity? To be honest, it is far worse than when ETH was still over a thousand dollars.

Saying this is not to urge you to enter the market. On the contrary—such a high volatility, low certainty environment makes it easiest for people to lose track. Understanding clearly before taking action is more important than anything else.