What variables will influence the market direction in December #数字货币市场回调 ?

First, let's look at the most critical aspect - the expectation of interest rate cuts. Last week, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December surged from 45% to 80%, and ETH also rose from $2800 to nearly $3100. However, this morning, rumors emerged that Powell might announce his resignation, supposedly because Trump has already selected his successor, which instantly cooled market sentiment.

Let's talk about tariff dividends. Trump mentioned this last month, but it hasn't materialized yet. If it can be implemented in December, it means the market will welcome a wave of liquidity injection—this is exactly the signal that many funds are waiting to see.

Third point of concern: The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair. Trump is likely to announce the candidate before Christmas, with Hassett currently being the frontrunner. He shares Trump's position on interest rate cuts, and if he does take office, a policy shift may accelerate. The market generally believes that interest rate cuts are favorable for crypto assets, but this is still just a speculation.

There is also the ETH hard fork upgrade the day after tomorrow. But a reminder: good news can sometimes be priced in early, and when it actually happens, it can easily turn into "buy the rumor, sell the news". Don't impulsively chase the highs.

As for Powell's future, it will cause fluctuations in the short term, but the Federal Reserve's response mechanism has long been in place, having limited impact on the overall direction.

The market itself is quite quiet right now, and the liquidity is even lower than when ETH was around a thousand dollars. I'm not advising you to enter the market, just a reminder—under such circumstances, the volatility is severe and there are too many variables, so acting hastily can lead to losses.