Did Brother Majie get liquidated, or is it just a prelude to a global deleveraging tsunami?

This morning, the cryptocurrency market witnessed another bloody scene. The well-known whale "Maji Brother" (Huang Licheng) had his high-leverage long position in Ethereum (ETH) on Hyperliquid liquidated. His account funds, which were topped up with $1 million a few days ago, peaked at $2.08 million, but evaporated instantly during this morning's crash, leaving only $360,000.

This is not an isolated tragedy. It is more like a signal, marking a chain reaction triggered by a dramatic change in global macro monetary policy, with the first domino already fallen.

The Inevitable Outcome of High Leverage

· Event: Brother Maji's ETH long position was Get Liquidated.
· Loss: Account funds have plummeted from a recent high of $2.08 million to $360,000.
· Background: This is the latest example in a series of losses he has recently incurred. Since October, he has accumulated losses of tens of millions of dollars in high-leverage trading, and his trading pattern has been described as "leverage washout."

The Real Trigger: The End of Japan's Era of "Cheap Money"

On the surface, it seems like ordinary market fluctuations, but the real deep-sea earthquake comes from Japan.

· Central Bank Shift: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda clearly stated today that he will consider raising the policy interest rate at the next monetary policy meeting. This is a strong hawkish signal that its monetary policy may shift towards tightening.
· Market Pricing: The swap market shows that traders expect the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at the December 19 meeting has surged from 30% two weeks ago to around 62%.
· Market Crash: In response to this shock, the prices of Japanese government bonds across all maturities plummeted (yields surged), with the 10-year government bond yield briefly reaching 1.85%, and the 2-year yield rising to its highest level since 2008. The Nikkei index subsequently tumbled.

What does this mean? For the past decade, global investors have been accustomed to borrowing the yen at extremely low or even negative interest rates, directing it towards high-yield assets such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. stocks, and even cryptocurrencies for arbitrage trading. However, with the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, this will directly siphon off the world's largest pool of low-cost leveraged funds. In order to repay yen debts, institutional investors will have no choice but to sell off the most liquid assets— with the cryptocurrency market being the first to bear the brunt.

Market Status: "Initial Stabilization" in the Storm

The current crypto market is under the dual pressure of the "10.11" large-scale liquidation event and macro headwinds. Although Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, several investment institutions (VCs) believe that the market is only in the "initial stabilization but not reversal" stage.

· Key resistance: A true reversal of market sentiment requires Bitcoin to effectively break through the $100,000-$110,000 range.
· Key observation points: It is necessary to see a continuous net inflow of ETF funds and effective control of the leverage level in the derivatives market.

Who will be targeted in the next liquidation?

The case of Brother Maji is by no means accidental; it reveals the most dangerous type of player when liquidity withdraws:

1. High-leverage whales and traders: Such as Ma Ji Da Ge, James Wynn, etc., who rely on ultra-high leverage to seek profits, are easily subject to consecutive liquidations during severe market fluctuations, quickly turning from huge profits to huge losses.
2. Funds and protocols with weak risk management: In a low liquidity environment, design flaws or insufficient risk management can be amplified, leading to a chain liquidation.
3. Overvalued altcoins with weak fundamentals: When the tide goes out, tokens lacking actual revenue and application support will face the largest declines.

The market may still be hoping that the high probability of the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December can be a lifeline, but the tightening process initiated by Japan is a more certain trend.

The global retreat of "cheap money" will force all assets that rely on leverage and liquidity premiums to undergo painful revaluation.

The cryptocurrency market, due to its extreme volatility and global liquidity, is destined to be one of the most sensitive and first-hit areas in this wave of deleveraging. The liquidation of Majid Brother may just be the first ripple stirred up by this tsunami.

In this era dominated by uncertainty, reducing leverage and examining the intrinsic value of assets may be the most reliable ark to navigate through the storm. For ordinary investors, this may not be the time to chase high-risk, high-return opportunities, but rather a moment to reassess the weight of the phrase "risk management." #十二月行情展望