The dollar has depreciated, should the crypto market celebrate?

Don't rush to open the champagne.

The ISM Manufacturing Index has been released, and the service industry data follows closely, which seems quite lively on the surface. But have you noticed something? What about the employment report? What about the inflation data?

All of this was suppressed by the reason of "government shutdown." And it was just right – it was only after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10 that it was released.

Is this a mistake? Or is it by design?

Central banks never rely on luck when playing their cards. They release expectations of interest rate cuts, but the real data that can judge the direction of the economy is kept behind the scenes. What they show you is just some scraps. They make you fill in the gaps, guess, and get excited on your own.

Then what?

When you really put in your hard-earned money, once the key data is released, the situation could turn around in an instant. Wasn't last year's "speculative hype" lesson deep enough? Once the news comes out, retail investors chase the price up, while institutions have already quietly liquidated their positions.

No matter how brilliant the non-core data is, it is merely a supporting role. The real protagonist is still waiting to make its appearance in the background.

What should we do at this time?

Three suggestions:

First, short-term data can be viewed, but don't let it influence your judgment. Emotion is a double-edged sword, and it often cuts oneself.

Second, before December 10th, controlling your position is more important than seizing opportunities. Earning a little less won't hurt, but being stuck could force you out.

Third, when listening to the Federal Reserve's speeches, don't just pay attention to what they said, but also to what they didn't say. The more they downplay certain points, the more likely it is to hide their true intentions.

The market has never feared the truth.

What you're afraid of is that you think you know the truth.

To survive in the crypto market, it's not about charging in the hardest, but about waiting the most steadily. Cognition can make money, but emotions can make you lose the money earned from cognition.