The news that came over the weekend poured a bucket of cold water on the baijiu zone. Data doesn't lie - over the course of ten years, the national baijiu consumption has fallen from 15 million tons to 4 million tons, and this rate of shrinkage is nothing short of a cliff-like drop. What’s even more heartbreaking is that the wholesale price of Moutai loose bottles has already fallen below the 1600 yuan mark, and this is a market barometer.

You can see how severe it is by looking at the reaction of the secondary market: the liquor zone has fallen by 5.36% this year, even hard currencies like Kweichow Moutai can't hold up, with a decline of 3.07% this year, and Wuliangye and others are even more sluggish.

There are two layers of logic behind this round of big dump. On the surface, the industry fundamentals have indeed weakened, and the consumption data is there, showing no reversal signal in the short term. The deeper issue lies in the trading structure – do you remember the last round of the "beautiful 50" collective market? Those institutions that bought at high positions are now frantically cutting their positions, with redemption pressure compounded by stop-loss orders, resulting in a cascading fall.

What is the capital doing? The answer is obvious: withdrawing from the consumption zone and turning to attack tech stocks. The market is just this realistic, the so-called "value investing, riding through bull and bear markets", after a big cycle, most believers have already changed beyond recognition. Everything has its cycle, this is true.