#数字货币市场回升 is a strange thing to say — two years ago, someone calculated when this bull run would come to an end.

I came across this statement in a community post at the end of 2023. That guy listed a set of data: Bitcoin bull runs usually last about 1064 days, while bear markets last about 364 days. Following this rhythm, he predicts that the peak of this wave will be on October 6, 2025.

At that time, few people took it seriously.

So what happened? The big coin really touched 126,000 dollars that day and then started to turn around. The date was spot on.

Later, I flipped through and found that more than one person had predicted this timing more than half a year in advance. They all used the same simple and crude method of cycle superposition—no complex models, no AI predictions, just simple addition and subtraction.

But it is accurate.

I have been in the industry for a few years now, and when I first saw this set of numbers, I was also apprehensive: is this thing too mystical? But if you take a close look at the historical trend charts, the time for each bull run and bear market switch is at most a few days off. It's like being set by an alarm clock.

The key is that Bitcoin is now an asset at the trillion level. With such a large volume, how can it operate at such a neat rhythm? Clearly, it can't be controlled by any single player.

My understanding is that the halving mechanism secretly regulates the breathing of the entire market. Just like farming needs to consider the seasons, trading coins also requires looking at the "cycle calendar."

So after October 6th, I started advising in the group: it's time to stop, don't hold on stubbornly. Sure enough, a few days later, the market took a sharp dive, and many people were caught off guard. But if you know the cycle has reached this point, you'll be calmer—because a bear market is part of the script, and after the dark night, dawn will inevitably come.

Someone asked what to do next?

The answer is simple: wait.

Wait for the next 1064 days of the bull run, then wait for 364 days of the bear. The starting point will naturally arrive.

This is not fortune-telling, it is arithmetic. The larger the market, the more obvious the patterns become. You don't even need to watch the market every day; as long as you know how to turn the calendar, you might be able to walk more steadily than most people.

Two sentences summary:
The bull run lasted about 1064 days.
Bear market lasts about 364 days.

Of course, these are just my personal observations and do not constitute any investment advice. The market will always have surprises, but cycles never fail to deliver.

$ETH