#数字货币市场回升 Barclays released their latest research report, stating that the Fed's meeting this month is basically stable - the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the meeting on December 9th to 10th exceeds 80%. Powell will definitely support it, and people like Waller and Bowman are also unlikely to oppose it.

However, there are still some dissenting voices within. At least two hawks, Schmid and Musalem, are determined to vote against it, and there is also a fence-sitter who may not buy it. It is evident that there are significant differences within the FOMC regarding large-scale easing.

More importantly, the round in January. Barclays believes that the Fed is highly likely to hit the brakes, and the wording of the statement and press conference should lean hawkish, suggesting that the pace needs to slow down. Unless the employment data truly collapses beyond expectations, the likelihood of remaining inactive in January is very high.

This is a double-edged sword for $BTC and $ETH . The rate cut in December can provide a strong boost to short-term liquidity, but the pause expectation in January gives the market a reason to wait and see. Crypto assets are increasingly tied to macro liquidity, and the subtle changes in this policy rhythm may be more worth watching than simply whether rates are cut or not.