Will Bitcoin really rise in December? 12 years of data tells you the truth.

YieldWhisperer

2025-12-01 09:00:24

Abstract generation in progress

[Coin World] I looked through the historical data of Bitcoin and found an interesting phenomenon. Since 2013, BTC has gone through 12 Decembers, resulting in 5 rises and 7 falls.

The craziest time? In December 2020, it rose by 46.92% in a single month. The worst? We have to go back to December 2013, when it fell by 34.81%, a direct halving.

I calculated the average performance of December over the years: the average return rate is 4.03%, which looks okay. But the median is -3.59%—this means that most of the time, December actually sees a fall.

So don't believe in any “year-end market trends”; the data shows that the rise and fall are basically fifty-fifty, with even a slightly higher probability of falling. This market has never followed the calendar.

BTC-0.94%

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LiquiditySurfer

· 16h ago

Fifty-fifty? What I see is just an old trick of probability theory. An average of 4%, a median of -3.6%, and this gap itself is telling a story—those few times of big pump directly raised the mean, while the other times are all about playing people for suckers.

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