First, the conclusion: This time the Fed meeting appeared tough, but in reality, it has quietly eased up.

Friends who stayed up late watching the market last night should have seen it, Powell's poker face was back on display. The words on the table are still the same old ones - "no interest rate cuts for now" "more data needed" "inflation hasn't met targets yet", which sounds quite scary. But if you only pay attention to these official statements, you might miss out; the real meat of the matter is hidden in the details.

Where is the core turning point? The pace of balance sheet reduction has changed!

In the past, the maximum reduction of the balance sheet was $95 billion per month, but now it has directly cut nearly half of that amount. What does this mean? The money in the market is not being withdrawn so quickly, and liquidity is starting to quietly flow back in. For crypto assets, this is much more effective than just calling for interest rate cuts—after all, the biggest fear for risk assets is a lack of funds.

Of course, there are still pitfalls.

Although inflation has come down from its peak, it is still hovering away from the 2% target. What’s more troublesome is that the White House's official has started to play his tariff games again. Once import costs rise, price pressures may rebound at any time. This situation is like a ticking time bomb; you never know when it will explode, but you definitely have to be on guard.

There's something even more exciting: Trump has started criticizing Powell again, calling him "Mr. Too Late," and every few days he shouts about wanting to replace him. Now even internal whispers are coming out, saying Powell's current term might really be unsatisfactory. Every time this kind of political bickering starts, the market goes into a frenzy—dollar, gold, and Bitcoin all tremble. So the biggest uncertainty in 2025 isn't the economic data, it's how much the policy games can escalate.

My own judgment is: the short-term benefits have already been realized, and the slowdown in balance sheet reduction has provided some breathing room; but in the medium term, it depends on two lines - whether inflation will rebound and to what extent the White House and the Fed can negotiate. At this stage, don't just focus on price fluctuations, pay more attention to the undercurrents of the macro environment, as that is what truly determines the direction.