#数字货币市场回升 QT paused ≠ bull run starting gun! The real turning point might still take some time.

In the past few days, there have been messages circulating in the community saying "the tapering has stopped, get ready for takeoff." Calm down, friends, history teaches us one thing — a policy shift is never as simple as flipping a switch.

Looking back at the operations in 2019, after officially announcing the end of the balance sheet reduction, the balance sheet actually continued to shrink for several more weeks due to technical adjustments before truly hitting the bottom. Don't expect that just because we hit the pause button yesterday, everything will be back to normal today. Based on usual projections, the balance sheet is likely to continue to decline for a while, and it may be until the first quarter of next year before we see a real bottom and reversal. In plain language: we are currently in a stage of stopping the bleeding, and it's still a long way from transfusion.

More importantly, stopping the tapering is essentially "not continuing to withdraw liquidity," which is completely different from "actively injecting liquidity." You've heard Powell's rhetoric — maintaining ample reserves, to put it simply, is to prevent systemic risks, not aimed at stimulating the economy. Even if we purchase some treasury bonds each year afterwards, faced with that mountain of fiscal deficits, the effect will be minimal.

What should retail investors do? Don't fantasize that this news can directly explode the market in the short term. Its true meaning lies in: the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads has finally been removed, at least it won't get worse. The current price of $BTC has already reflected quite pessimistic economic expectations, and once confidence is restored, the upside elasticity could be considerable.

Here are a few practical references:
First, do not chase prices or panic sell. After news is released, emotional traps are most likely to occur, and blindly chasing highs will only make you a bag holder.
Second, keep a close eye on the data window at the beginning of next year. See if the balance sheet resumes growth, or if the interest rate cut expectations are fulfilled, that will be the real signal.
Third, continue to dollar-cost average into $BTC and $ETH. The ambiguous market period is the golden time to accumulate chips at a low cost; don't touch those altcoin garbage that jumps three meters a day.

The market always speculates on expectations. Now that the "tightening has ended" has been realized, the next story will have to wait for the "easing to start". Prepare your bullets, manage your positions, and it's not too late to act when the real starting gun sounds.