#ETH走势分析 Yen has crashed again, could this really drag down the crypto market?

Recently, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has dropped to around 156.25, depreciating by 10-12 points compared to the beginning of the year, setting the worst record since the 1990s. On the surface, it seems like just fluctuations in the exchange rate figures, but in reality, this matter is more closely tied to the trend of $BTC $ETH than you might think.

Why do you say that? Japan has long maintained ultra-low interest rates, and global investors treat this as a free ATM—borrowing a large amount of almost interest-free yen and then investing it in high-yield assets like US stocks, crypto, and real estate. This practice, known as "carry trade," is essentially a leveraged game. Now there are rumors that the Bank of Japan may tighten policy and start raising interest rates. If this turns out to be true, the funds borrowed for trading cryptocurrencies will instantly flow back to repay debts.

Data is more intuitive: the global traditional financial market is about $44 trillion, while the total market capitalization of crypto is just over $3 trillion. The disparity in scale means that when large funds withdraw, the cryptocurrency market will be the first to fall like a domino effect. Some analysts predict that BTC could jump directly from the current price to the $60,000-$70,000 range in a single candlestick - it sounds crazy, but a similar situation did occur during the rapid appreciation of the yen in 2022.

Why has the Japanese Yen been continuously declining? There are several core reasons: high interest rates in the United States are draining resources, the Bank of Japan continues to inject liquidity, the cost of energy imports has surged, and hedge funds are using algorithmic trading to short the Yen, amplifying volatility. In the short term, the depreciation of the Yen can stimulate exports and tourism, but the rising cost of imports will hit corporate profits, while the government's debt, which is as high as 260% of GDP, makes aggressive policies wary.

For crypto players, there are two signals to watch closely: the policy shift of the Bank of Japan and changes in the US-Japan interest rate differential. Market manipulation is also something to be wary of—when large institutions short the yen, volatility can be magnified, and asset prices may experience irrational crashes. At this point, rather than guessing where the top is, it is better to first understand how much drawdown your position can withstand.