#美联储恢复降息进程 Is the expectation of interest rate cuts really stable this time? The latest data from CME's tools is quite interesting.

The possibility of a 25 basis point cut in December is now at 87.4%, while the probability of holding steady has been compressed to 12.6%; looking ahead to January next year, the cumulative bet on a 50 basis point cut also accounts for 23.2%. These numbers are here, and the script for loosening liquidity is basically clear — for crypto assets, this macro environment is usually a good background sound.

But the market never allows you to comfortably lay back and win. On-chain data shows that large holders have recently been frequently transferring $BTC to centralized platforms, and the shadow of selling pressure hangs over us. So we find ourselves in a twisted situation: the policy front paints a rosy picture for you, while the chip front throws cold water on you.

The next period is quite critical—before the December interest rate meeting, will the price react in advance with a rally, or will it be suppressed by selling pressure and continue to drag on? Do you think Bitcoin can hold its key support level before expectations are fulfilled? This round of game will test the resilience of market sentiment.