#数字资产市场观察 $ETH $BNB $ASTER

Late night news came in - the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has risen to 87%. The numbers are there, yet the market remains cautious.

The current cryptocurrency market seems to be at a crossroads: there are signals of stabilization, but the confidence for a reversal is still lacking. Looking back at this round of adjustments, two factors are at play. First, the major leveraged liquidation on October 11 exposed the fragility of liquidity; then the macro environment changed dramatically — fluctuating interest rate cut expectations, stubborn inflation data, and a weak labor market have put pressure on risk assets across the board.

The consensus in the VC circle is: don't rush to bottom-fish. The true market bottom requires confirmation from two anchors - a clear direction in macro policies and the attitude of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. For Bitcoin, stabilizing in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, along with continuous net inflows from ETF funds and a return to healthy leverage levels, would indicate a real exit from the quagmire.

It is worth noting that it is not only the United States that is adjusting its monetary policy. The Bank of Japan has also recently signaled an interest rate hike, and the direction of global liquidity is quietly changing.

The interesting thing is that during this round of correction, high-quality projects with real income have seen their valuations fall back to 2024 levels, but on-chain data shows that the fundamentals have actually become more solid.

Is this a "chance that has fallen out" or is it "risk that has not yet cleared"? Let the market answer itself.