#数字货币市场回升 The recent trend is hard to understand? Don't worry, pull out the Nasdaq Candlestick Chart for comparison, the answer is hidden in that nearly synchronous curve.

Data doesn't lie: the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 index has surged to 0.8, a height not seen since 2022, and it ranks among the top two in the past decade. The independent market of "digital gold"? That's a story from the previous cycle. Today's Bitcoin resembles a twin brother of U.S. stock risk assets — it doesn't necessarily rise together, but it certainly falls in unison.

Why is this happening? The root cause lies in the change of players at the table. When top hedge funds like Bridgewater and BlackRock start including Bitcoin in their asset allocation, it is destined to move in tandem with tech stocks and the Nasdaq. Once the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity, institutions won't hesitate to cut their positions, whether it's Tesla or Bitcoin; they will sell first and ask questions later. What’s worse is that this correlation has a "more drops, less gains" bug: when US stocks rise by 2%, Bitcoin might only shake a bit; when US stocks drop by 2%, Bitcoin can give you a 5% start. In simple terms, it acts as a risk amplifier.

The crash in November was a living textbook example. The Nasdaq fell 2.2% in a single day, Bitcoin directly smashed through the $90,000 mark, not to mention that the annual increase was wiped out, with the maximum drop in 24 hours reaching 35%. Over $1 billion in funds were instantly liquidated, and nearly 400,000 traders were forced to close their positions. At such times, are you still focusing on on-chain data and contract holdings? Those traditional indicators are no longer sufficient. What did the Federal Reserve say in their meeting, what bombshells were revealed during the US stock earnings season, where is institutional money flowing—these are the real "cards on the table".

So now when investing in Bitcoin, you can no longer just work behind closed doors. It's not enough to only study leverage ratios and whale addresses; you must also look at the trends of the Nasdaq and S&P 500. How macro liquidity changes and how institutional funds flow are the core variables that determine short-term ups and downs. After all, in a correlated market, ignoring the dynamics of the U.S. stock market is like running blind.

Instead of passively taking hits, it is better to proactively adapt to the rules. Treat the trends of the U.S. stock market as a "weather forecast" for Bitcoin, and build a cross-market observation system. Hedge when necessary and enter the market when the time is right. The market has changed, and strategies must evolve accordingly—this is the hard truth of surviving in a new cycle.