#ETH走势分析 ETH this plummet is coming in strong, everyone!

First, let's look at the big picture. Central banks around the world have been too aggressive with interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions, leading to tight market liquidity and a persistent shadow of economic recession. Funds are flowing into safe-haven assets, and high-volatility assets like the crypto market are naturally being sold off. Is it too difficult for ETH to stay out of this?

The fundamentals are actually not bad. The deflation story brought about by the PoS transition is still there, and the ecosystem remains strong. However, the problem is that on-chain activity has declined during the bear market, revenues have shrunk, other public chains are eyeing for opportunities, and regulatory policies are always vague. There is nothing wrong with being optimistic in the long term, but in the short term, these negative factors are weighing down, and market sentiment just can't pick up.

The technical aspect is more direct—the trend has already deteriorated. All indicators are in a bearish alignment, and the key support level is precarious. Until a clear signal of a reversal is seen, the probability of going down is much greater than going up.

Let's talk about how to operate.

Short-term traders can do this: wait for a rebound to the resistance range of 3000-3020, and if it stops rising, open a short position with a stop-loss above 3050; if it directly breaks through 2960 with volume, you can lightly chase a short position.

Friends who hold long positions, don't rush to bottom fish. Be patient and wait for the market sentiment to stabilize and for the technical indicators to provide confirmation signals. Keep a close eye on the key level of 2850; if a strong reversal pattern appears on the daily chart and the MACD shows a bullish divergence, then it won't be too late to accumulate in batches at that time. Remember to test with small positions, don't go all in.

In addition, the U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve's statements should be closely monitored, as these macro events often serve as catalysts for market turning points.

Although the market is indeed a bit dull right now, opportunities will always come. Be patient, and when the time is right, you will naturally take action.