CME data: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is nearly ninety percent, and there is divergence in the policy path for January next year.

LiquidityWitch

2025-11-30 23:44:15

Abstract generation in progress

According to the latest data from CME's FedWatch Tool, the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting is as high as 87.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current status is only 12.6%. The market has formed strong expectations for the last rate cut of the year.

Looking ahead to January next year, the situation is somewhat complicated: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 67.5%, the likelihood of no change has decreased to 9.2%, but there is also a 23.2% chance of seeing a cumulative cut of 50 basis points.

These data reflect the market's judgment on the Fed's monetary policy path - the interest rate cut cycle is likely to continue, but the pace may be more moderate than previously expected. For risk assets, this gradual easing might create a healthier environment.

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TradFiRefugee

· 19h ago

87.4%? Wake up everyone, this is why I say the Fed has no real independence... The market is already betting on it.

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HashBrownies

· 12-01 00:14

A probability of 87.4%? Uh... this number sounds quite intimidating, but the real outcome will depend on what happens in December.

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DuckFluff

· 12-01 00:14

I believe in the number 87.4, the interest rate cut is a done deal in December, now just waiting to see how January plays out.

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memecoin_therapy

· 12-01 00:13

There is an 87.4% probability... feels like we're going to be played for suckers again --- The interest rate cut cycle isn't over yet, but the pace has slowed down. Is this good or bad for the crypto world? --- Mild easing? Sounds nice, but I'm more concerned about when to buy the dip --- 23% probability of a double cut in January... this data is interesting, we have to keep a close eye on it --- With the Fed and interest rate cuts, when will this combo hit the coin price? --- Gradual easing sounds pleasant, but the Wallet is still feeling nothing --- December's interest rate cut is a sure thing, January is the real suspense; let’s just call ourselves gamblers --- A healthy environment... how did we survive those unhealthy days before? --- 67.5% vs 23.2%, the market is betting on double cuts or single cuts; this psychological game is stimulating

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BlindBoxVictim

· 12-01 00:07

87.4%? Uh… it's this "high probability" again, why do I always feel like the market is deceiving me?

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DaoTherapy

· 12-01 00:06

87% probability is stable, just see how January plays out, the 50 basis point at 23% is a bit interesting.

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AlphaWhisperer

· 11-30 23:45

87% probability? December is stable now, but I'm worried that the 23% double drop in January might cause some trouble.