Recently, there is an interesting phenomenon in the market: after the Fed officially announced a rate cut, Bitcoin not only did not rise but fell instead. Many people, looking at the green numbers in their accounts, began to doubt life—wasn't it said that a rate cut is Favourable Information?

In fact, the cryptocurrency market has never followed the textbook script. It plays the game of expectation differences, rather than simple cause and effect. Behind this "interest rate cut and fall" lie several overlooked truths.

**The first truth: Favourable Information has been priced in early**

Two weeks before the interest rate cut, the market's expectations for this decision had reached nearly 100%. The pricing of swap contracts had already factored in this news. As a result, BTC skyrocketed from 58K to 68K, equivalent to having started the party early.

The question is, what happens after the party is over? At the moment when interest rates are truly lowered, those funds that have been positioned in advance start to take profits and exit. This drop is not because the interest rate cut is ineffective, but because what was supposed to rise has already risen early. There is an old saying in the market: buy on expectation, sell on realization.

The driving force behind price rises and falls is often not the event itself, but the gap between this event and market expectations. When everyone knows that interest rates are going to be cut, the price has already reflected this information. What truly drives the market is those unexpected changes.

A rate cut will indeed affect market liquidity and risk appetite, but if this impact has already been priced in, then the announcement becomes a "sell the news" moment.