The Fed's interest rate cut situation in December shows that the current market and institutions widely expect a 25 basis point cut from the Fed in December, but there is still some uncertainty. Here are the detailed predictions from the Fed:

1. Institutional Forecasts: JP Morgan adjusted its forecast twice within a week, ultimately believing that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with another cut expected in January next year; Goldman Sachs also anticipates that the Fed will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing slowing inflation and a cooling labor market as providing room for the rate cut.

2. Market Expectations: According to CME FedWatch data, the current market expects the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 84.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 15.3%; swap traders also hold an optimistic view, believing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is about 80%, whereas a week ago this percentage was less than 30%.

3. Officials' Statements of Support: New York Fed President Williams stated that the Fed still has room for interest rate cuts in the short term. Fed Governor Waller clearly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, and Governor Mulan also indicated he would vote for a 25 basis point cut in December. The statements from dovish officials have greatly boosted expectations for rate cuts.

4. Potential Variables: On one hand, there are disagreements within the Fed, with Boston Fed President Collins clearly opposing rate cuts. The number of votes in favor of rate cuts is still one vote short of a majority. If Fed Chairman Powell changes his stance, rate cuts may be paused; on the other hand, key data such as the October CPI will be released on December 16 (after the Fed's meeting). If the data shows a rebound in inflation, previous expectations for rate cuts may be dashed. Additionally, even if a rate cut occurs, it may be accompanied by hawkish guidance.