#香港稳定币监管框架 Spot silver recently broke through $55 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Behind this wave of market activity, there are actually several clear driving forces.

First, let’s talk about the most direct catalyst—the expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are brewing. Now the market is betting that the probability of a rate cut in December has soared to over 85%. What does a rate cut mean? For assets like silver that do not generate interest, the opportunity cost is decreasing, and naturally, funds are willing to flow into them.

Looking at the supply and demand side, silver has actually been in a supply deficit for the past 5 years. The industrial demand for silver in fields such as the photovoltaic industry and electronic manufacturing has been continuously increasing, and the spot inventory has been tight. Additionally, with the U.S. listing silver as a critical mineral, the potential tariff risks have prompted traders to start stockpiling in advance, and ETF funds have been continuously flowing in, which has further pushed up the price.

So what does this have to do with the cryptocurrency market? In the short term, it's actually a bit subtle.

The recent surge in silver prices may siphon off some funds that were originally allocated to cryptocurrencies—especially from investors with lower risk appetites. If you recall the Bitcoin crash in November, a significant amount of money fled to the precious metals market for safety. Moreover, the "traditional safe-haven" label for silver and gold is becoming stronger, which somewhat undermines the "digital gold" narrative of cryptocurrencies. After all, Bitcoin is still highly correlated with the U.S. stock market, and the market does not fully recognize its safe-haven attributes.

However, looking at the long term, if the Federal Reserve really does implement interest rate cuts, the overall environment of liquidity easing will actually be beneficial for risk assets. By then, silver will rise, and cryptocurrencies will also rise; this kind of emotional resonance situation is likely to occur.

Additionally, there is a sub-segment opportunity worth paying attention to - tokenized precious metals. Silver itself has both industrial and financial properties. If this characteristic is combined with the trading flexibility of cryptocurrencies, it may give rise to some silver-backed stablecoins or on-chain assets. These kinds of things not only have the value support of silver but also enjoy the convenience of on-chain transactions, and they might just become the next hotspot.

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