AI Analysis: $ALCH/USDT

Entry price: 0.162–0.166
Target Price:

- TP1: 0.172
- TP2: 0.179
- TP3: 0.188+
Stop-loss price: below 0.1545

Reason for buying:

1. Shape Confirmation:
- The daily chart has formed a "double bottom" reversal structure (neckline at 0.172), with a bottom depth of 0.0175 (0.1545-0.172)
- Measure of increase = bottom depth × 1.618 = 0.0283 → Target price 3 = 0.1545 + 0.0283 = 0.1828 (actual rounded to integer 0.188+)
2. Trend Structure:
- The weekly level breaks through the 2024 downward trend line (0.188→0.179 connection), with the price standing above MA(50) 0.165
- RSI(14)=58 (neutral to bullish), MACD red bars expanding indicate strengthening bullish momentum.
3. Breakthrough Potential:
- After breaking above 0.172, it opens up upward space of 0.188+
- If an effective breakout occurs, it may trigger the liquidation of 2.0x leveraged contracts.
4. Indicator Verification:
- The OBV indicator has reached a new 20-day high, indicating capital inflow.
- Funding rate +0.125% (positive for 8 consecutive days), futures open interest exceeds 32 million USD
- On-chain data: Exchange net flow - 58 million coins, whale holdings increased by 35%

Key Observation:

1. Support overlap: The 0.1545 stop-loss level corresponds to the November 2024 low and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.
2. Fibonacci Structure: The current price at 0.162–0.166 is at the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the 0.1545→0.172 upward segment.
3. Moving Average System: MA(200) 0.163 coincides with the lower edge of the entry zone, forming strong support.
4. Volatility expansion: The Bollinger Bands width has expanded to 12.8% (the highest in the past 30 days), and the breakout direction may bring a daily fluctuation of 20% or more.

Trading Logic:

- Gradual position building: first position at 0.162 (Fibonacci support), additional position at 0.166 (MA50), with an average price controlled at 0.164
- Stop-loss mechanism: 0.1545 is set below the double bottom neckline, conforming to the technical definition of "valid breakdown pattern".
- Target Progression:
- 0.172 (Neckline position): Take 30% position out.
- 0.179 (historical high): reduce position by another 50%
- 0.188+ (Yearly line pressure): Remaining position betting on trend extension

Key Signal:

- The 0.168–0.170 range is the high point for August 2024, forming a breakout confirmation point.
- If the trading volume during the breakout increases to more than twice the 5-day average volume, you can increase your position to 60% of the total position.
- A continuous positive funding rate indicates a dominance of long positions, which may trigger a short squeeze.

This content is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice.