Goldman Sachs' latest research report from the FICC department shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 86.9%. Weak employment data, along with increasing concerns within the FOMC about economic slowdown, make a 25 basis point rate cut almost a certainty. More notably, CME interest rate futures market pricing indicates that the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by January next year has also reached 23.1%.
This expectation is quietly changing the market landscape. The supply of stablecoins has recently surged by $17.25 billion, with USDT and USDC continuing to be issued. On-chain data indicates that institutional funds are accelerating their entry. Historical experience tells us that similar liquidity release signals often herald a market reversal: in 2019, three rounds of interest rate cuts drove BTC from $3,500 to $13,000, and the zero interest rate environment in 2020 ignited an entire bull market.
The market reaction has already started ahead of time—BTC has recently rebounded over 13% to return above $90,000, with mainstream coins like SOL rising by more than 3%. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has achieved an unrealized profit of $3.2 billion, indicating that traditional financial institutions are very confident in this wave of market. Also, don't forget the Ethereum network upgrade expectation on December 3rd; the resonance between technical and macro factors may bring more room for imagination.
The interest rate cut cycle combined with the end-of-year market trend is opening the gates of liquidity. Will you choose to position yourself early or wait and see? Feel free to discuss your views and holding strategies in the comments section.
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ChainSherlockGirl
· 11-30 14:41
Stablecoin surged by 17.25 billion. From my analysis, this is institutions quietly accumulating chips, history is always surprisingly similar.
On-chain data shows that the transfer frequency of large investors' wallets has been unusually high these past two days. Instead of waiting and watching, it’s better to directly track their actions; this is the true way to crack the code.
With an 86.9% probability of interest rate cuts, it simply means that the money-printing cycle has arrived, and the crypto world spectators are about to start celebrating again.
BlackRock's 3.2 billion unrealized gains is quite a concept... it shows that traditional finance has already made its moves, and we retail investors are just now reacting. Is it too late?
Interestingly, the expectation of interest rate cuts coincides with the Ether upgrade, with both technical and macro factors providing double support. I would give this plot a score of 9, but I wonder if it will reverse tomorrow.
Can the history of 2019 and 2020 be replicated? The real spectators are currently betting on this.
SOL’s rise of just over 3% feels a bit lukewarm. Mainstream tokens are all like this; it seems that this wave of excitement is being monopolized by BTC.
To be honest, those who haven't gotten on board yet feel a bit anxious, but those who continue to wait are even more anxious. This psychological drama is quite intense. To be continued, everyone.
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AlwaysAnon
· 11-30 14:41
The expectation of interest rate cuts is here, what are you waiting for? Enter a position early.
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MidnightMEVeater
· 11-30 14:40
Good morning everyone, it's another early morning where we discover large amounts of stablecoins getting on board. To be honest, the issuance of $17.25 billion... the sandwich attackers in the Bots paradise have long sniffed it out.
The real story isn't about BTC breaking 90,000, but about those big players who placed orders in the dark pool in advance. Rate cut expectations? It's just a story told to retail investors; the capital has long used midnight arbitrage to clean up the entire price impact.
So, you ask whether to layout or wait and see? My suggestion is—first figure out who is playing people for suckers in the gas war regarding miner tips, and then decide whether to follow the trend into this liquidity trap. History repeats itself, and no one feels it more painfully than when liquidity is released.
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metaverse_hermit
· 11-30 14:33
With such strong expectations for interest rate cuts, institutions are quietly hoarding stablecoins, it really feels like it's coming.
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SchrodingersFOMO
· 11-30 14:33
86.9% probability? Uh, this number looks like it's trying to hype us up, haha
18.25 billion stablecoins flooding in really can't hold on anymore, this move by institutions... I just want to ask, is there anyone still waiting on the sidelines?
ETF unrealized gains of 3.2 billion, TradFi is all buying the dip, and we're still here hesitating?
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MemeCoinSavant
· 11-30 14:26
so according to my peer-reviewed analysis of stablecoin inflows (n=172.5B, p<0.0420), we're basically watching liquidity velocity reach statistical significance... basically number go up again lol
Reply0
CoffeeNFTrader
· 11-30 14:16
Are the expectations for interest rate cuts so strong? Stablecoin has surged by 17.25 billion, which is definitely a signal for funds to get on board. Will history really repeat itself?
#数字货币市场回升 $ZEC $LSK $SUI
Goldman Sachs' latest research report from the FICC department shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 86.9%. Weak employment data, along with increasing concerns within the FOMC about economic slowdown, make a 25 basis point rate cut almost a certainty. More notably, CME interest rate futures market pricing indicates that the likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by January next year has also reached 23.1%.
This expectation is quietly changing the market landscape. The supply of stablecoins has recently surged by $17.25 billion, with USDT and USDC continuing to be issued. On-chain data indicates that institutional funds are accelerating their entry. Historical experience tells us that similar liquidity release signals often herald a market reversal: in 2019, three rounds of interest rate cuts drove BTC from $3,500 to $13,000, and the zero interest rate environment in 2020 ignited an entire bull market.
The market reaction has already started ahead of time—BTC has recently rebounded over 13% to return above $90,000, with mainstream coins like SOL rising by more than 3%. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has achieved an unrealized profit of $3.2 billion, indicating that traditional financial institutions are very confident in this wave of market. Also, don't forget the Ethereum network upgrade expectation on December 3rd; the resonance between technical and macro factors may bring more room for imagination.
The interest rate cut cycle combined with the end-of-year market trend is opening the gates of liquidity. Will you choose to position yourself early or wait and see? Feel free to discuss your views and holding strategies in the comments section.