From the perspective of institutions, how should we correctly view the bottom of Bitcoin?

According to related interview reports, a manager from a certain institution revealed that by the end of the year, market optimism began to weaken, and the credit environment became particularly tight. Therefore, about two to three weeks before the end of the year, it was a wise choice to pre-sell 15% of their Bitcoin position to moderately de-risk. It was mentioned that there is currently no need to redeploy that capital, but he spoke about following several key price levels of Bitcoin.

One key level is $78,000, which represents a 40% drop from the peak. In the last market cycle, Bitcoin experienced an 80% decline, and if volatility is halved, it is believed that the price adjustment could also be halved, making a 40% drop a reasonable risk-reward opportunity. If the price falls further, another level worth following is $55,000, which is the position of the 200-week moving average. Of course, if the market experiences extreme conditions, such as another 80% drop, Bitcoin could return to around $27,000, which is exactly the price level when BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin ETF. This scenario would wipe out all ETF gains, but it is believed that the likelihood is low. Overall, a 40% drop and support around $70,000 still present a good entry opportunity.

When discussing the difference in investing between $77,500 and $80,000, the manager stated that individual investors should be more flexible in assessing price levels since the gap exists for a relatively short period and does not have significant differentiation. However, institutional investors often face more constraints when deploying funds, such as risk management and rebalancing issues, so they usually opt for a systematic investment approach. For example, investing a fixed amount at a certain price level or making systematic investments every two days. It was also mentioned that there is a dedicated trading team to support, which can find liquidity faster and execute trades, which is one of the advantages of institutional investing, allowing for a more disciplined investment approach. Nonetheless, it is believed that there is no absolute right or wrong way; the key lies in making wise and reasonable decisions based on one's own logic and client needs.