The Trap Under the Rally: What Is Really Happening with Bitcoin?

This bullish cycle is not a retail affair. Institutional money and large whales are the true drivers of the market. And at this moment, on-chain data reveals something fascinating: we are simultaneously witnessing the capitulation of new whales and the reaccumulation of smart money.

The New Whales Are Leaving

The recent decline has a clear culprit: new entrants closing positions at a loss. The increase in realized losses is the typical signal of a final washout, when weak hands give up at the worst possible moment. In previous cycles, this often marked the local bottom. But here we are in the late stages of the macro cycle — so the strength of the buying side needs confirmation.

Smart Money is Taking Advantage of the Panic

Now comes the interesting part. The data shows a clear divergence:

• Accumulation Zone (purple): went from negative to positive
• Total whale balance (rose): stopped falling and started to rise
• Whale balance: which had been declining for months, is now flattening and curving upwards — classic accumulation pattern.

The reading is obvious: smart money is buying in the $80,000-$95,000 zone while the market enters a panic.

The Real Trigger of the Endgame

A piece of the puzzle is missing: the ancient whales are still for now. The real end of the cycle will probably begin when:

1. The price bounces
2. The ancient whales begin to distribute in that fortress.

When that happens, we will know that the endgame has begun.

The Conclusion

A short-term fund and a rebound are becoming increasingly likely. However, considering the late-cycle conditions, a 2x move or another year of bullish rally is unlikely. Similar to previous patterns, we could see a rally towards January that forms a “Lower High” or challenges the previous high.

Smart money is already positioning itself. Now the market awaits confirmation — and the movement of the old whales.