BTC: Script for November 28

Ordinary retail investors focus on the candlestick charts, while the big players are focused on liquidity and macro fog.
1. Macroeconomic "black swan" signals: Canceled inflation data
This is currently the largest macro "alpha" information. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the release of the CPI data for October due to reasons such as the government shutdown, which means that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make decisions in a **data vacuum (Data Fog)**.
• Interpretation by experts: This kind of uncertainty usually drives risk-averse funds to withdraw, but the current market trend is unusual—funds are "betting" that the Federal Reserve will tend to a dovish stance (interest rate cuts) during this vacuum period to maintain stability. This provides invisible macro support for risk assets (Crypto).
2. The "House Edge" of the Derivatives Market: Friday Options Expiry
Tomorrow (November 28, Friday) is the Bitcoin options expiration date.
• Max Pain Data: The current "Max Pain" price for some ETF options (such as FBTC's pain point around \bm{81 corresponding to BTC} in the $80k-$85k range) is far lower than the current spot price ($91,000+).
• Game Logic: Market Makers usually want the price to converge towards the "pain point" to eliminate option buyers. However, the current spot price is strongly hovering above the pain point, indicating that the buying power has overwhelmed the Market Makers' manipulation intentions. If the price does not drop back below $85k tomorrow, this itself is a very strong bullish signal, suggesting that shorts may be "squeezed out".
3. Institutional Capital Flow: The "Reinflation" of ETFs and Stablecoins
Don't pay attention to the media headlines about "panic"; look at where the money is really going.
• ETF Reversal: After experiencing several days of outflows, spot ETFs (such as BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC) have recently recorded net inflows (approximately $340 million). Institutions are taking the opportunity to replenish positions after the drop below $90k.
• Stablecoin Minting Machine: On-chain data shows that a large amount of USDC (multiple transactions at the $100 million level) has been minted and transferred to Coinbase in the past 24 hours.
• Implication: Institutions will only convert dollars to USDC and deposit them into exchanges when they are ready to make significant purchases of spot. This is the most direct signal for buying momentum.
4. Whale Movements: "Hunting" Amid Long-Short Divergence
On-chain tracking (Whale Alert) shows obvious signs of "hand over."
• Short: A whale account with a 100% win rate opened a short position near $90k, betting on a short-term pullback.
• Long positions: Another batch of giant whales (such as "Maji") is wildly accumulating ETH and BTC, and the average buying cost is continuously increasing.
• Analysis: When the old whale sells and the new giant whale takes over, it usually means that the handover at the bottom range has been completed.

How will the script go?

1. Asian/European session (daytime): There may be a "fake drop" (to lure shorts) targeting the support levels of 90,000 or 88,000. This is to align with Friday's options expiration, where market makers attempt to drive the price down.
2. US Market Hours (Evening): With the opening of the U.S. stock market (if it's a half-day session or normal trading), the USDC that was previously deposited into the exchange starts to take effect, supporting the market and attempting to recover lost ground.
3. Result: A candlestick with a long lower shadow is formed, and the price fluctuates in the $90k-$92k range, leaving bearish retail investors missing out and making chasing retail investors uncomfortable.
(Next Step)
• Do not short: Shorting when there is a large inflow of USDC and the price is above the maximum pain point is no different from picking up coins in front of a steamroller.
• Limit order "needle catch": You can place staggered buy orders in the range of $88,500 - $89,200.
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