Today I called a family member to discuss the market.

He’s been watching top-escape indicators like the pi indicator, ahr999 indicator, etc.
He told me that if the October top was really the market peak, those indicators didn’t give any signals at all.

This is the same as what I mean by a non-blowoff top.

The ahr999 top-escape indicator didn’t reach the sell zone.

The rainbow chart was still in the “consider DCA” and “consider buying” range in October.

Google Trends didn’t reach above 40, which is far from the 60 seen last cycle.

2017 and 2021 both had classic blowoff tops:

High leverage, high funding rates, huge price increases—everyone knew it was the top, but since the price kept rising the next day, people remained greedy. The greed continued, profits kept rolling in, but eventually it crashed.

Even those who didn’t exit understood they were just too greedy—they knew it was the top but didn’t sell. No one blamed the market.

This cycle is different. The position on October 6th hadn’t reached FOMO levels in terms of sentiment, capital, or gains, and then it crashed without warning—a black swan event—leading straight into a bear market.

This is what I call a non-blowoff top: there was no frenzy, just a small pump followed by an immediate dump, then it kept dropping without looking back.

Another point worth noting: from April to October, Bitcoin’s rise wasn’t accompanied by OTHERS (altcoins), meaning only BTC pumped, not the alts.

So, the profit effect was extremely low.

This year, whether you followed the four-year cycle or other indicators, it was very difficult to exit at the top.

For the four-year cycle, this is also the first time (the last major top of the cycle wasn’t a blowoff top).

Only the 2019 top (June 2019) is somewhat comparable, though there are still differences.

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