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Been digging into “Ownership Coins” sales on @MetaDAOProject.
This @solomon_labs market on @Polymarket caught my attention.
Only 10 hours left. And only 50% of $15M (~$7.5M) committed,
yet the market is pricing “Yes” at 94% for >$15M.
So what’s really going on?
I looked back at previous Avici and Umbra sales to see what happened in the final stretch.
Here's what I found:
- In the last hour of Avici's sale: A massive influx of $26–27M in new commitments.
- In the last hour of Umbra's sale: An explosive $77M inflow.
Even with Loyal (the other privacy project), they received $53M in the last 6-12 hours as well.
I expect the same pattern for this sale.
So my guess for this bet
>$15M commitment - Yes (94c)
>$40M commitment - No (73c, due to market condition)
DYOR.