At 00:30, Bitcoin Candlestick suddenly plummeted dramatically, with a bearish belt hold directly breaking through the 65000 level. The investment group instantly erupted, with the screen filled with soul-searching questions: who is dumping behind the scenes?

Don't jump to conspiracy theories, and there's no sudden black swan event; the truth is simple: two market capital extraction machines happened to come together and started.
The first pump is the emergency auction of US Treasury bonds. The TGA account of the US Treasury is about to run dry, urgently needing to replenish ammunition, and has overnight thrown out 163 billion US Treasury bonds. This means that investors have to take out real money to take over, with more than 170 billion US dollars locked into the bond cage overnight. Bitcoin, as a representative of risk assets, has its capital pool siphoned off, and is the first to bear the brunt of the impact.
The second pump is the hope of interest rate cuts extinguished by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve official Goolsbee suddenly took a hawkish stance early in the morning, stating that inflation has not yet been brought down, and that thoughts of a rate cut in December are out of the question. This statement directly stunned the short-term funds betting on interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut shown by CME interest rate futures plummeting from 70% to 45%. Funds hurriedly closed their positions without discretion, leading to a vicious cycle of liquidation, and with Bitcoin lacking liquidity support, it could only decline all the way.
But there's no need to panic, this blood draw is just temporary. Once the U.S. government shutdown crisis is resolved and the TGA account is replenished with funds, the money that was drawn will flow back into the market. If the Federal Reserve slows down reverse repo operations next week, the short-term supply of dollars will also become more relaxed. From a funding winter to a liquidity spring, this cycle typically lasts no more than a few weeks.
Instead of being on edge watching the red and green Candlestick, understanding the direction of liquidity is the real skill. Want to get the liquidity calendar in advance to hedge in time before funds are drawn?
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