Why does everyone shout that a bull run is coming when the Fed lowers interest rates? In fact, this logic is not complicated; to put it simply, it comes down to one sentence: when money is too cheap, it won't just lie quietly in the bank. Think about it, what does the Fed lowering interest rates mean? It means that the interest you earn by keeping your money in the bank is less, and it might even not keep up with inflation. So large amounts of capital are reluctant to stay in the bank and must look for places with higher returns to flow into. At this time, there are not many places in the U.S. that can accommodate large amounts of capital—manufacturing has long been hollowed out in recent years, the risks are high and the returns are low, and it simply cannot absorb this capital. So capital naturally flows into the US stock market. The US stock market is a "wealth amplifier"; the more money that comes in, the more it rises, and as it rises, it creates more paper wealth, which attracts even more capital. Thus, a cycle of "liquidity push" emerges, and the stock market thrives. The risk appetite sentiment in the stock market will again be transmitted directly to the crypto space through the financial system. The crypto space itself has no fundamentals; it relies solely on sentiment and liquidity. Once the US stock market takes off and investor confidence rises, speculators will rush in, and crypto assets will naturally rise. Conversely, if the Fed raises interest rates, the rates go up, and it becomes very advantageous to keep money in the bank, making it unnecessary to take risks by investing in stocks or cryptocurrencies. The result is that a large amount of funds flow back into the banking system, leading to a decrease in the stock market's levels, and with a lack of incremental funds, it naturally becomes easier to decline. This is the basic principle of "the inverse relationship between interest rates and the prices of risk assets" as explained in textbooks. But - here's the point - the real world isn't always like a textbook. For example, in the past few years, the Fed has been continuously raising interest rates, yet the US stock market keeps rising unabated, which clearly goes against common sense. What does this indicate? It indicates that someone is "supporting the market," and there is an invisible hand intervening. How to determine if this intervention exists? Just look at another anomaly: government bonds. While the Fed is raising interest rates, the U.S. Treasury is continuously and madly expanding the national debt. Every additional dollar of national debt issued is equivalent to the U.S. injecting another dollar into its domestic economy. In other words, the Fed's right hand is withdrawing liquidity by raising interest rates to tighten the US dollar; however, the Treasury's left hand is adding liquidity by issuing government bonds to inject the US dollar back into the market. The result is that the liquidity within the United States, although theoretically should decrease, has not actually decreased and may even be increasing. It's like that bizarre math problem we did when we were kids: a pool is being drained from the bottom while water is being added from the top, and the question is, when will the pool be full? Everyone thinks this question is unreasonable; you can't do that in reality. But the U.S. is doing just that, and they're doing it quite defiantly. Why do they take the risk of implementing this "interest rate hike + quantitative easing" combination? The reason is not complicated. The United States wants to use interest rate hikes to pull back all the dollars from around the world, causing other countries to fall into crisis or even economic collapse due to a dollar shortage. This way, dollar assets will become more valuable, and the U.S. will harvest global wealth. But at the same time, the United States cannot let its own domestic economy collapse due to interest rate hikes. If all the funds are absorbed into the banks, once liquidity is cut off, the US stock market and real estate market will implode first, and before the rest of the world can harvest, it will be finished first. So they are both raising interest rates and wildly issuing government bonds to sustain themselves. This is the reality we see: the global dollars are decreasing, but the dollars within the United States are increasing, and the US stock market is rising instead of falling. This set of operations looks like cheating, but in reality, it is a maneuver allowed within their system. So, when you see the Fed announce a rate cut and the market collectively cheers, it's actually because—money will become cheaper, more abundant, and more rampant. As long as money is sufficiently rampant, it will rush towards everything that can make money, and the stock market, crypto space, gold, and commodities will all be inflated. This is why everyone says "lowering interest rates means a bull run".
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
Why a Fed rate cut generally means a bull run
Why does everyone shout that a bull run is coming when the Fed lowers interest rates?
In fact, this logic is not complicated; to put it simply, it comes down to one sentence: when money is too cheap, it won't just lie quietly in the bank.
Think about it, what does the Fed lowering interest rates mean? It means that the interest you earn by keeping your money in the bank is less, and it might even not keep up with inflation. So large amounts of capital are reluctant to stay in the bank and must look for places with higher returns to flow into. At this time, there are not many places in the U.S. that can accommodate large amounts of capital—manufacturing has long been hollowed out in recent years, the risks are high and the returns are low, and it simply cannot absorb this capital.
So capital naturally flows into the US stock market. The US stock market is a "wealth amplifier"; the more money that comes in, the more it rises, and as it rises, it creates more paper wealth, which attracts even more capital. Thus, a cycle of "liquidity push" emerges, and the stock market thrives.
The risk appetite sentiment in the stock market will again be transmitted directly to the crypto space through the financial system. The crypto space itself has no fundamentals; it relies solely on sentiment and liquidity. Once the US stock market takes off and investor confidence rises, speculators will rush in, and crypto assets will naturally rise.
Conversely, if the Fed raises interest rates, the rates go up, and it becomes very advantageous to keep money in the bank, making it unnecessary to take risks by investing in stocks or cryptocurrencies. The result is that a large amount of funds flow back into the banking system, leading to a decrease in the stock market's levels, and with a lack of incremental funds, it naturally becomes easier to decline.
This is the basic principle of "the inverse relationship between interest rates and the prices of risk assets" as explained in textbooks.
But - here's the point - the real world isn't always like a textbook.
For example, in the past few years, the Fed has been continuously raising interest rates, yet the US stock market keeps rising unabated, which clearly goes against common sense. What does this indicate? It indicates that someone is "supporting the market," and there is an invisible hand intervening.
How to determine if this intervention exists? Just look at another anomaly: government bonds.
While the Fed is raising interest rates, the U.S. Treasury is continuously and madly expanding the national debt. Every additional dollar of national debt issued is equivalent to the U.S. injecting another dollar into its domestic economy.
In other words, the Fed's right hand is withdrawing liquidity by raising interest rates to tighten the US dollar; however, the Treasury's left hand is adding liquidity by issuing government bonds to inject the US dollar back into the market. The result is that the liquidity within the United States, although theoretically should decrease, has not actually decreased and may even be increasing.
It's like that bizarre math problem we did when we were kids: a pool is being drained from the bottom while water is being added from the top, and the question is, when will the pool be full? Everyone thinks this question is unreasonable; you can't do that in reality. But the U.S. is doing just that, and they're doing it quite defiantly.
Why do they take the risk of implementing this "interest rate hike + quantitative easing" combination? The reason is not complicated.
The United States wants to use interest rate hikes to pull back all the dollars from around the world, causing other countries to fall into crisis or even economic collapse due to a dollar shortage. This way, dollar assets will become more valuable, and the U.S. will harvest global wealth.
But at the same time, the United States cannot let its own domestic economy collapse due to interest rate hikes. If all the funds are absorbed into the banks, once liquidity is cut off, the US stock market and real estate market will implode first, and before the rest of the world can harvest, it will be finished first. So they are both raising interest rates and wildly issuing government bonds to sustain themselves.
This is the reality we see: the global dollars are decreasing, but the dollars within the United States are increasing, and the US stock market is rising instead of falling.
This set of operations looks like cheating, but in reality, it is a maneuver allowed within their system.
So, when you see the Fed announce a rate cut and the market collectively cheers, it's actually because—money will become cheaper, more abundant, and more rampant. As long as money is sufficiently rampant, it will rush towards everything that can make money, and the stock market, crypto space, gold, and commodities will all be inflated.
This is why everyone says "lowering interest rates means a bull run".