The first Chainlink Spot ETF is about to be launched, can LINK's price break free from its sluggishness?

The Grayscale-backed Chainlink Spot ETF (GLNK) will officially trade on NYSE Arca on December 2, marking the first ETF product exclusively for institutional investors in LINK. However, the recent poor performance of other altcoin ETFs has raised questions among investors about whether GLNK can truly boost LINK's price.

In the past two weeks, Grayscale has launched the GDOG and GXRP ETF, and the Zcash (ZEC) ETF is also in preparation. This shows that Grayscale is actively expanding into markets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, focusing on alts favored by institutions. However, the listing data for the SOL and XRP ETFs indicates that altcoin ETFs have not significantly driven up prices: the SOL ETF fell 18% on its debut day, and the XRP ETF dropped over 10%, indicating a cautious market sentiment.

On-chain data shows that a whale has accumulated 2.33 million LINK over the past six months, with a maximum value of up to $38.86 million, but as of the ETF listing, the paper loss still amounts to $10.5 million. This kind of unrealized loss may trigger short-term selling pressure in the early stages of the ETF listing.

However, on the positive side, CryptoQuant data shows that the circulating supply of LINK on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2020. Historical experience indicates that when exchange balances decrease and long-term accumulation continues, prices typically do not remain low for long, and supply tightening often drives prices up when demand increases.

The listing of GLNK will be a key watershed for LINK: short-term bearish factors include the overall weak performance of altcoin ETFs, low market sentiment, and underwater whale positions; bullish factors include a decrease in exchange supply, a long-term accumulation trend, and the upcoming influx of institutional funds. Investors need to closely monitor the first 72 hours after the ETF listing to determine whether the flow of funds and market sentiment can act as a catalyst for LINK's rebound.

The Chainlink ETF is about to be launched, and the market focus is on whether GLNK can break the stagnation of LINK. The initial performance of the ETF will determine the short-term price trend.